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HODLTON
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    0.1 BTC
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  • Return (Last 30 days)
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  • Return (Last Year)
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  • Balance
    5,000 USD
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HODLTON
30.11.2021
Call buying at $70k and higher and put selling around $60k for the 31DEC (year end) expiry has dominated options market flows in the recent 24 hours!

Sentiment is shifting bullish
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HODLTON
30.11.2021
Honestly, this doesn't look great for December if you are a bull... just observing - putting the puzzle together

Volatility is skewed to downside strikes for the 31DEC21 contract (year-end)
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DonaldMcBlockface
would make sense options data reflects the “extreme fear” in the market right now. we’ll see bearish bets > bullish bets.
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RogerTheRippler
@DonaldMcBlockface , Agree. Options !> futures in terms of rationality imo. Yet showed some early reversal signals at tops
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FibbonacioBitcoins
until we don't see daily close bellow 50.5k macro uptrend is not intact... just zoom out ...
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LordSatoshi
@FibbonacioBitcoins , I think you meant intact?!
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NiFTonWaves
True but… 1. Given current narrative and people soiling their pants over new variant it makes sense 2. Things change fast in crypto land. Should next week bounce this skew may quickly look different
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RichardKing
It will change quick first week of December.
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HerculesOraculus
Just calm before the storm?
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HODLTON
27.11.2021
Getting long $BTC when funding turns negative typically plays out quite nicely
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MinerASIC
Exactly one of the things I'm looking at
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HODLTON
27.11.2021
Thanksgiving (red line) on $BTC since 2015... 5/6 times it has been a red day!

But uponly afterwards
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FibbonacioBitcoins
Any data on what time UTC the dumps tended to occur on Nov 25?
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BabyYoda
Good enough. Thank you ser! You're the data chad!
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HerculesOraculus
Been saying this for a while now. Families get together, talk crypto and stay interested until they meet again for the Holiday Season. Not a guarantee but a high probability.
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NiFTonWaves
Soon, I hope, the US holiday calendar (and the US in general!) will have much less impact on crypto. That type of monolithic influence is so old school...
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SonnyNakafomo
Perfect time to get our low 50’s bids filled, test the 21 wEMA, and pick up the liquidity we need for the next leg up!
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RogerTheRippler
Dang, looks bullish af
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DonaldMcBlockface
Got no problem with this whatsoever
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HODLTON
26.11.2021
Short-dated 25d skew seems to indicate that investors are taking some risk off the table headed into the US holiday weekend

Steadily moving higher indicates demand for puts relative to calls!
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BabyYoda
So, dump into the weekend?
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HODLTON
@BabyYoda , not necessarily a dump, just less likely that price increases sharply over the coming days
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FibbonacioBitcoins
@HODLTON , slow bleed perhaps into month end
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HODLTON
26.11.2021
Didn't take long for funding to reset after spiking the day before yesterday
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DonaldMcBlockface
Do you think we'll get through to the weekend expiry before price go up?
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HODLTON
25.11.2021
Looks like fear to me!
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RichardKing
Fear only starts, after one more month of downtrend will be the real one
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RogerTheRippler
@RichardKing , You mean one more week of downtrend.
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ElliottLostmykeys
I think fear kicks in when we see prices in 4x,xxx where I will start rebuying and real "BEAR MARKET IS BACK" fear at 3x,xxx where I will bet big
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DonaldMcBlockface
Bullishness everywhere but price....Let's pump it
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HODLTON
24.11.2021 ( edited 8d ago )
Activity concentrated at the $58,000 USD strike over the past 48 hours

With the Crypto Option Expiry on Tuesday, I'd guess that price hovers around that level for the next few days
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HODLTON
24.11.2021
I'll be keeping a close eye on the put/call ratio for when to take profits - you can see how it indicated the sell-off in May this year...

Essentially it shows when bearish bets are growing in the options market, and right now it looks quite bullish (trending down)!
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MinerASIC
How do one gets this data?
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NiFTonWaves
Options expiry of Nov. 19th was one of my main indicators I used to spot the bottom of this last little pullback. Calls to puts ratio and key price levels show clearly how smart money are betting the market. More people should take this into consideration. Thanks for sharing
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SonnyNakafomo
Do you mind sharing a link where you get that data from?
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RichardKing
Potentially the most bullish metric I’ve seen in favor of the bulls.
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HODLTON
22.11.2021
$ETH / $BTC pairing is on the verge of a breakout from multi-month consolidation below resistance, and funding looks like this

Let the games commence
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LordSatoshi
Perhaps YES. But I wouldn't be surrprised if we'll have to wait about one more month (27.12.) for this breakout. Only the TIME will tell how this plays out
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MinerASIC
Let’s hope this leads to an upward breakout
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RogerTheRippler
Altseason?
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HODLTON
22.11.2021 ( edited 10d ago )
$BTC funding is at what has historically been a 'healthy' level for sustained moves higher

The market is nowhere near being overheated at this point
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SonnyNakafomo
Past history is no indicator of future performance - not financial advice - don’t sue. But also - do this and you’ll be rich.
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HODLTON
21.11.2021
$ETH a similar story
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NiFTonWaves
If Eth then a good chance rest of ALTs too?
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HODLTON
@NiFTonWaves , yes I would think so
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