LordSatoshi

30.11.2021

SEMI-SHOCK: Fidelity launching a spot bitcoin ETF in Canada this week. Didn't know about this. Will easily be the biggest asset manager to date with a bitcoin ETF.

SonnyNakafomo

Do you think Greyscale’s position re:APA moves the needle at all for spot ETF approval?

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SonnyNakafomo

@SonnyNakafomo , Prob not. Genz doesn't seem like kind of guy who can be influenced.

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LordSatoshi

30.11.2021

Update on the on-chain bull market support band:

So far so good, nearly textbook bounce.

To check our bullish bias though: Still need to reclaim $61K, still haven't closed daily yet, and also need to see how legacy markets react tomorrow. Definitely not out of the woods yet.

NiFTonWaves

When I'm in the mood to hunt bears, I never want to leave the woods.

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RichardKing

@NiFTonWaves , Haha yo I'm buildling the ultimate bear hunting capital strategy, thats really what it is

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sirCryptodorfer

Market manipulators give bitcoin just enough juice so they can keep making money pumping and dumping alt coins. Wake me up at 75k

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DonaldMcBlockface

@sirCryptodorfer , You would need always a nice telco with tje right people just before "action" srarts. That's a licence to print money. I really can understand why many call for regulations.

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LordSatoshi

27.11.2021

Covid variant news isn't ideal. Yet to see any sizable amount of liqs or OI flush, so a wick lower is very possible.

However, STH cost basis, or what I've been calling the "on-chain bull market support band", sits at $53K. Let's see if it holds over these next few daily closes.

LordSatoshi

26.11.2021

Over the last two weeks, clear bullish divergence between BTC supply moving to strong hands and price.

sirCryptodorfer

Does this illiquid supply ratio pull from all exchanges?

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LordSatoshi

@sirCryptodorfer , Exchanges are liquid entities. Supply moving off exchanges means increase in ISSR.

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sirCryptodorfer

@LordSatoshi , But is this considering inflow/outflow from ALL exchanges?

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LordSatoshi

@sirCryptodorfer , Unlike looking at exchange balances, this doesn’t rely on labelling heuristics. We’re solely looking at the spending behavior of all the entities on chain. With that being said, exchanges are NOT illiquid entities.

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sirCryptodorfer

@LordSatoshi , Thanks man. Appreciate the explanation. Love all your analysis!

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LordSatoshi

24.11.2021

Obviously oversimplified, but this is generally my mental framework for approaching the Bitcoin market.

LordSatoshi

22.11.2021

BTC short-term holder cost basis (VWAP) has historically served as a "bull market support band". Currently at $53K.

Given other macro on-chain indicators are showing we are in a bull market, I'm betting this correction is almost over if it isn't already.

HerculesOraculus

Can we stop calling price drops "corrections"? Every time we use the word "correction" we suggest that the lower price is the "correct" price and that the market is efficiently finding that "correct" price.

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BabyYoda

@HerculesOraculus , Yes that’s what it means. Assets gets overbought and oversold, there’s an imbalance in supply and demand so when it reverses, it’s correcting that imbalance.

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LordSatoshi

21.11.2021

Short-term holder realized price (cost basis) has been a very interesting level that Bitcoin price has historically interacted with. This has served as a floor during bull markets.

Currently sits at $53K.

RichardKing

This doesn’t mean anything, it’s a trailing indicator.

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LordSatoshi

@RichardKing , Not true at all. It tells you the real time cost basis of short term market participants.

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RichardKing

@LordSatoshi , I’m saying it doesn’t mean anything in terms of a price floor. Plenty of significant breaks in 2017 (though short-lived) you just can’t see them on chart because of the log scale.

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@RichardKing , Buying below that level while it trending upward is generally a good idea, no?

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RichardKing

@FibbonacioBitcoins , It’s a good idea until it’s not. I suspect we are a long ways from it being a bad idea.

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LordSatoshi

21.11.2021

Liveliness is a big boy metric.

Liveliness = Ratio between coin days created and destroyed

When it trends down, BTC is in accumulation. When it trends up, BTC is in distribution.

Currently just started to slope up a bit after reaccumulation over the last few months.

Coin moves to a wallet and sits there for ten days = 10 coin days created.

That coin is then moved out of that wallet = 10 coin days destroyed.

LordSatoshi

19.11.2021

High dormancy = High spending of older coins.

Dormancy flow is market cap / Annualised dormancy (measured in USD)

Seeing dormancy flow currently so low means older coins remain relatively dormant. This Bitcoin bull market still has a ways to go according to the metric.

HODLTON

Hey! Love your work! If I have 1 BTC thats a year old and considered ‘older’, and also have 1 ‘younger’ BTC, when I sell 1 BTC, which coin would go? Is it oldest out first?

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BabyYoda

@HODLTON , Does it actually work that way? If your 1st btc cost you $10 and the second one cost you $20 and today btc is worth $30, you'd have 2btc worth $60 total right? And if you sold one today at $30-then youd have $30 in cash (assuming your in USA) & 1 btc remaining. Right?

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HODLTON

@BabyYoda , Im just trying to understand if its possible to ‘blur’ this metric by selling younger coins instead of older ones. I assume older coins are sold first, which would make this a very compelling metric to refer to.

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HODLTON

@HODLTON , Im referring to the dormancy metric to clarify

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NiFTonWaves

I imagine older coins move less and less as time goes on. Anyone else holding coins 4+ years knows they are not selling them. Do you think as time goes on this continues to drift down and to the right?

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@NiFTonWaves , I thought older coins usually took profit as Bitcoin grinded higher?

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NiFTonWaves

@FibbonacioBitcoins , How older coins is defined is important. I make sure to qualify those after 4+ years now more than a few months. Profits are taken from older coins but to less and less of an extent. Notice the trend of the chart over the last several years.

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MinerASIC

@NiFTonWaves , Greater the pressure harder the diamond

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LordSatoshi

18.11.2021

Lightning Network capacity has increased by a factor of over 3x YTD.

In real-time, we are watching Bitcoin transition from solely a store of value to a medium of exchange as well. In addition, Taproot going live now boosts privacy on the Lightning Network.

NiFTonWaves

Absolutely incredible to witness.

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RogerTheRippler

@NiFTonWaves , What risks are we taking by adding this layer? Or is it 100% without risks? Ref: layered money

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LordSatoshi

15.11.2021

Bitcoin is programmatic scarcity

BabyYoda

That's fab but the price has been static for 3 weeks suggesting that whilst it's scarce that at these prices people don't want to buy.

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HODLTON

@BabyYoda , Look at the trend, starting in 2009. Follow the dots. 3 weeks does not tell the story.

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MinerASIC

I think since all big moneys and media already knew about this bull run probably we won’t see the bull run till Q1 or Q2. Hope I am wrong.

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HerculesOraculus

@MinerASIC , I’m perfectly fine with that. More time to stack cheap sats

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LordSatoshi

13.11.2021

Long-term holders buy BTC into weakness and sell into strength.

We've just gotten our first red prints on LTH net position change in over 6 months, showing bull market distribution has begun.

BabyYoda

Be that as it may, price could still increase for months and the downside deviation in the indicator could also continue to deviate for months before an actual price peak occurs

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LordSatoshi

@BabyYoda , Yea that's my point

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HerculesOraculus

Can you explain this a bit more? Why is everyone saying this is bearish > if this is correlated then btc price went through the roof last Red section, and green was all capitulation?

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NiFTonWaves

@HerculesOraculus , Remember how bullish the on chain was when we had that nasty dip a while back and everyone said it was the bear? Now think the opposite. On chain will paint the true data first and then price charts will follow. The BTC price chart is a lagging and MANIPULATED Indicator

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LordSatoshi

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