LordSatoshi

17.09.2021

Introducing: Illiquid Supply Floor

This combines Glassnode's illiquid supply data with Plan B's traditional S2F model, creating a price floor based on Bitcoin's real-time scarcity. Currently $39K

Red: ISF
Black: S2F

NiFTonWaves

This is crafty. I love the combination of illiquid with stock to flow. They seem like natural allies in the supply/demand story. Absolute fire!

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LordSatoshi

@NiFTonWaves , Thanks boss

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DonaldMcBlockface

What accounts for the unprecedented dip below the ISF this cycle? I see there was only one other - a brief and smaller dip back in 2017 - but this current one seems more extreme.

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RichardKing

@DonaldMcBlockface , I would think leverage/liquidation cascades and price manipulation by whales could both cause price to dip below and wouldn’t invalidate the model necessarily

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DonaldMcBlockface

@RichardKing , 100% agree. Wondering why we're seeing it more pronounced now. Perhaps b/c the derivatives market is so much more active than in prior cycles.

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LordSatoshi

16.09.2021

The average age of the BTC being spent is back in decline.

This shows older coins (more experienced market participants) are sitting tight and presumably expecting more upside here.

BabyYoda

I'd like to see this somehow adjusted, or maybe just compared to Realized Price. As new ATHs occur, sell pressure brings older coins onto the market. Once those coins are sold though, ASOL isn't as high when revisiting those price levels.

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SonnyNakafomo

@BabyYoda , The weekly glassnode newsletter often shows metrics in their charts. About 5 weeks ago they spoke on this.

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sirCryptodorfer

Will I probably should leave some alt positions and go back to btc soon if I want to maintain my btc value huh? Lol thanks

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@sirCryptodorfer , Bitcoin is a low risk, high reward play. Alt coins vary in their risk and reward. All are more risky than BTC but their reward varies from less to more than BTC imo

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ElliottLostmykeys

@sirCryptodorfer , If btc goes, valid alts go harder. But it also works to the downside. I dont own bitcoin simply because there is too much upside to gain on other markets. But I really love bitcoin!

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LordSatoshi

16.09.2021

Potential short squeeze setting up for BTC

HODLTON

This chart has no legend. WTF are we looking at here?

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MinerASIC

@HODLTON , Number go up

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HODLTON

@MinerASIC , Clearly! Even though the chart is illegible, I love the kid’s enthusiasm.

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DonaldMcBlockface

@HODLTON , Price is going up while funding rate is going down

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LordSatoshi

15.09.2021

Shhhhh it's oke
$BTC now with the golden cross as an MA trader

And *squints*

A bullish engulfing candle that engulfs 6 days of bearish bottom sellers on dare I say... Increased volume?

HerculesOraculus

I guess we are going to test 48000 and then 42~44k again, mmmm a bull trap dare i say, i feel like just one whale is forcing btc up last 2~3 weeks, also who am i to say i haven't made millions or even 10k

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BabyYoda

@HerculesOraculus , Yea one whale forcing a trillion dollar mc higher. You got it. Where was this whale when btc went from 52 to 43?

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LordSatoshi

15.09.2021

Back above the 200DMA, now facing a bit of resistance at Monday's high/September's Monthly open ($47K-$47,150)

If those levels are indeed broken, could see a pretty swift move up to August's high at $50.5K

RichardKing

Can you discuss the stock market? What if the stock market starts to roll over / have a decent correction? Won’t this drag down bitcoin? Feel like no one is talking about this. Thank you

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@RichardKing , If the spx has a correction, say like 10% from the highs, then yea it will drag btc with it, these are macro correlated markets, would be keeping an eye on DXY also

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sirCryptodorfer

@FibbonacioBitcoins , Well that's one view. Another is sector rotation. I am not concerned about times frames shorter than 5 years however.

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@sirCryptodorfer , Rotation into btc if spx has a significant correction you mean? Because that generally never happens with risk on assets, tbh i'd be more concerned with rate hikes and future QT with longer term timeframes in relation to their effect on bitcoin, as you probably are too

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LordSatoshi

14.09.2021

The Lightning Network now has 2,488 BTC in over 73,000 channels High voltage sign

Bitcoin is scaling.

LordSatoshi

14.09.2021

Red is the number of whales, green is their holdings

FibbonacioBitcoins

This is what glassnode data says. Very different from what you are suggesting.

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sirCryptodorfer

@FibbonacioBitcoins , The number of addresses is down but the amount of bitcoin per whale address is equal or up. I.e. same amount of bitcoin locked up just across fewer wallets. Bullish/neutral implications. Fortune favors the bold.

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@sirCryptodorfer , That's a perfect reason to get out of bitcoin.

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BabyYoda

@FibbonacioBitcoins , I think its logical to make an assumption that over time as btc price trends higher the total number of such addresses will decrease.

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@BabyYoda , You mean remaining whales getting fatter a good thing? That’s a great way to manipulate a market.

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BabyYoda

@FibbonacioBitcoins , I did not say its good or bad.

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LordSatoshi

13.09.2021

93% of Bitcoin's supply hasn't moved in at least a month.

This is an all-time high. Just another metric showing how bullish supply dynamics are.

NiFTonWaves

For valueist long-term currency holders, there is no difference between a bull market and a bear market. The mood swings brought about by the bull market and bear market are noisy among speculators.

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HODLTON

@NiFTonWaves , Still, it’s nice to wake up to price appreciation

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RogerTheRippler

@NiFTonWaves , Keep in mind that since BTC doesn't generate revenue, every dollar earned comes at a loss for someone else. You don't need to be the first one out, just don't be caught holding the check.

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NiFTonWaves

@RogerTheRippler , So where did the shrinking legal currency go?

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RogerTheRippler

@NiFTonWaves , I know this is a waste of time but... Fiat is inflationary bc when demand>supply prices move upward. Population is constantly growing, therefore the is demand is always increasing which is why the dollar loses value over time. As long as demand is increasing, prices will rise.

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LordSatoshi

13.09.2021

The volume of Bitcoin younger than 1 month has hit an all-time-low of less than 7% of circ. supply.

In other-words, the volume of coins older than 1 month is at an all-time-high.

The HODL is very real
Old coins are not being spent
Young coins are maturing

This is bullish.

SonnyNakafomo

For a bullrun you need new fresh retail money to join the game. If older coins are increasing, to me it means that retail are not coming at the moment. I don’t see this bullish at all. A positive trend of volume and recent coin increase would change my mind.

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HODLTON

@SonnyNakafomo , Hate to say that but seems all around me, new entrants are avoiding btc and eth. Going on the curve of high risk tokens. That could also be the end of the bull run.

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LordSatoshi

@SonnyNakafomo , Retail dont move 1 trillion $ markets. Institutions do. If you are watching for retail to create the bull, you are watching the wrong buyer. One institution > 10k retail

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SonnyNakafomo

@LordSatoshi , I see these in chain analysis again and again, they never were right on either top or bottom prediction when done by perma bull or perma bear.

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LordSatoshi

11.09.2021

I'm still bullish $BTC.

Lots of liqs, OI rekt, funding neutral, spot books solid on bid side.

If we were to get another sweep of the low that would probably be a great long opportunity.

HerculesOraculus

agreed... we do need one more shake out at least.. on-chain data and today's setup are radically different from the last 60k top, we won't be spending 90 days wondering if we going to 20k or not:) BUT volume has to show up, the limelight is not on BTC anymore which is a concern

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FibbonacioBitcoins

@HerculesOraculus , Why should it be a concern that bitcoin is moving away from being a speculative asset? It still sees tremendous growth in relatively short time frames.

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HerculesOraculus

@FibbonacioBitcoins , Because we at a cross road and wouldn’t want a see 64k be the final stop .. maybe the fact that futures put BTC at 46k in December is also a concern ..

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LordSatoshi

11.09.2021

When in doubt, zoom it out.

Macro Bitcoin investor activity has shifted starting last year. The asset has gone from becoming increasingly speculative to now being increasingly HODLed.

NiFTonWaves

Super macro, I think it’s more of a case that the speculative coins do not give off the same heat signature with the rise of exchange activity in 2016. If that activity was recorded it would sway liquid supply entities between categories.

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LordSatoshi

@NiFTonWaves , Yeah good point, I think illiquid supply now has more signal than ever because of the tendency for big buyers to now take coins off exchanges.

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LordSatoshi

10.09.2021

Bitcoin is on the edge of a very large cost basis zone.

Next major on-chain support is down at $40k...

Given we are now below the 200DMA, probabilities have increased that we fill in the gap.

Again, I think macro forces/uncertainty are the primary drivers here.

A dip to buy.

sirCryptodorfer

I do not see the logic that a high volume zone will give support when falling to it. It’s not because going to a high volume zone gives strong resistance that the other way around is true.

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sirCryptodorfer

@sirCryptodorfer , Odds are high for a 2nd test of the 20w MA & 21w EMA followed by some wicks below to take stop losses and get all Altcoin Money back in to BTC. End of next week we go back up on road to test ATH .

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